It’s the bombshell that few would have seen coming a few weeks ago but Jorge Martin himself has now confirmed he fully intends to exercise a clause in his still young Aprilia MotoGP contract to leave the manufacturer - so what next for the defending MotoGP World Champion?

The tale of Martin and Aprilia has been fraught with issues from the off. Literally, as in a few laps into his first turns on the Aprilia RS-GP when he suffered a wrist injury in two separate crashes during pre-season testing.

Returning for Round 4 in Qatar, he then suffered a fractured rib and pneumothorax when he was struck by another rider following a fall. His return to action is yet to be confirmed.

With time on the sidelines to recover from his injury, Martin has clearly also taken the time to closely read the fine print on his Aprilia contact, his period out from action being interpreted as Aprilia not meeting performance clauses, therefore giving him a way out.

Strictly speaking, Martin is seemingly willing to give Aprilia a chance to prove its RS-GP is competitive enough for him to get back to his title-winning best, but the seeds of doubt are now well and truly sown. Then there is the inevitable friction for when he does return.

As an aside, Martin’s declaration not only throws the ever-entertaining ‘silly season’ into overdrive, it adds a lot of uncertainty for other riders who’d hoped to get their future sorted well in advance of 2026.

Indeed, the prospect of Martin being on the market will cause teams to sit up and take notice, as well as put a pause on ongoing negotiations in the hope of snaring the Spaniard. However, with no return date confirmed and no say on how long Aprilia has to prove itself or otherwise to Martin, we could be in for a bottlenecked few weeks.

So, if Martin does leave Aprilia, where could he go?

HRC Honda

The most likely candidate at the moment appears to be Honda, which can provide Martin with the factory seat he so readily desires. Having achieved everything he could on a satellite Ducati at Pramac Racing, an HRC seat is logical, but littered with concerns.

Honda’s competitive struggles have been well documented and though things are certainly back on the up thanks largely to Johann Zarco’s heroic exploits on the LCR machine, there is a sense the manufacturer’s results are being flattered by a faltering KTM and Aprilia right now.

There is only one factory seat available, that being alongside Joan Mir, with Luca Marini’s hopes of retaining his spot hampered by his recent injury woes. Zarco would seem the obvious choice for a promotion but also appears happy killing giants in the Monegasque team.

There will be a lot of keenness to get Martin on an RC213V at Honda. His nationality and star-status would help them secure a title sponsor in the wake of Repsol’s exit, while the general feeling is that Honda will eventually get back to its best and Martin could be the talent to spearhead that.

Then there is the Honda ‘curse’ of sorts. Many high-profile riders have accepted a (no doubt very lucrative) Honda deal, only to be stung by the idiosyncrasies of a bike and team that for so long relied heavily on Marc Marquez’s way of doing things.

His exit in 2023 seems to have had a balancing effect on the culture at HRC but many who joined have suffered for thinking the pain of adapting would be a short-term affliction… 

KTM Factory Racing

If Martin’s MotoGP future looks uncertain, then KTM can certainly relate. The Austrian manufacturer has been through the mire with financial losses over the last 12 months, though a recent security boost from Indian conglomerate Bajaj appears to have quelled fears of an entire collapse.

For now though it is unclear whether motorsport is in KTM’s future. The firm has invested a huge amount of time, money and effort to get to the front of MotoGP, Moto2 and Moto3, but motorsport is often one of the first projects to be axed when the coffers empty at boardroom level.

For now KTM has two contracted riders, but as Suzuki a few years ago showed, they mean nothing if the manufacturer wants out altogether. It’s this lack of clarity that might well help either of Pedro Acosta and Brad Binder trigger clauses in their deals, with the former seemingly most likely to leave having expressed dissatisfaction at KTM’s form and shot admiring glances at Ducati.

Indeed, KTM’s decline in pace is symptomatic of a manufacturer being distracted by off-track woes. As time drags on, Acosta might use the opportunity to seek a new future, but if he does - and KTM does assure its MotoGP future - Martin might find himself in the right place at the right time. 

That’s provided KTM has forgiven him for reneging on a deal to join the manufacturer in favour of Ducati back in 2021…

Prima Pramac Yamaha

While Martin opted against following Pramac Racing to Yamaha this year, the upturn in form by the manufacturer might sway him back to the Italian team if there are precious other options available.

It does seem unlikely though. While it might make some sense for Martin to get back to what he knows, a second tier seat at a manufacturer still not quite where it should be seems like a step back even from this angle. 

Pertamina Enduro VR46 Ducati

The bitterness of being overlooked in favour of Marc Marquez at Ducati Lenovo Team was the catalyst for Martin to walk right into the arms of Aprilia in the first place, so a switch back to a privateer Ducati would take some pride swallowing.

That’s not to say it wouldn’t come with some potential benefits. Ducati still has the superior motorcycle on the grid and Martin has proven what he can do with those tools in satellite environments already.

Plus, the option to reverse some roles and become the underdog to shame Marquez on equal(ish) machinery might prove quite tempting, though it’s probably not the wisest motivation for choosing your next step.

Aprilia Racing

As extreme as his statement came across, one could view Martin’s decision to begin activating his clause as simply a way to get himself on the market by public domain.

With numerous rumours about riders on the cusp of being signed up and down the grid, Martin’s public intentions simply state he could be available and that he’ll be waiting by the phone should teams be interested in adding him to their wishlists.

It buys him some time without the awkwardness of finding himself without a seat when the music stops, which is crucial because if Martin leaves Aprilia without a deal, he faces almost two seasons out of race action. It’s a sabbatical he’d struggle to recover from.

Marco Bezzecchi’s win at Silverstone will allay some of Martin’s fears about the bike’s potential, but it seems his concerns are rooted in the fact the RS-GP is difficult to ride, an issue his team-mate sympathises with.

All being said, Martin does have a good deal at Aprilia. The manufacturer has shown it has the nous to fight for wins and titles - more so than his other options at KTM, Honda and Yamaha have shown for some years - while the Italian firm was clearly very excited to have him and build a team around him.

It remains to be seen if this debacle changes the mood within the ranks - which alone might be enough for Martin to have already signed his own exit warrant regardless to some at Aprilia - but once the dust settles, he might not view his current predicament to be as bad as it seems.